Pharmaceutical Industry

Oncology Market Facts and Outlook 2008

The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) held its annual confab recently to the tune of 40,000 participants, ranging from researcher luminaries to down-home family docs. Financial analysts were at the meetings, generally hogging the first rows of seats with laptops open and cell phones on. But you can't blame them: The breaking data on cancer drugs in late-stage trials resonates on Wall Street, kicking drugmaker stock values up or down.

Pharm Exec asked two top pharmaceutical analysts who specialize in oncology, Clair Gricks and Ramya Kollipara, both of Decision Resources, to review ASCO’s highlights-and then crystal-ball the cancer market’s outlook. They came up with the following predictions.

• Total oncology market sales: 2007: $59 billion; 2012: $80 billion
• Avastin, already a major player with four cancer indications, will aim to expand its label into the very large and lucrative market of early-stage disease. Total sales: 2006: $2.4 billion; 2011: $7.2 to $9.6 billion
• With two indications already under its belt, Erbitux will grow its market with an application for non-small-cell lung cancer.
• Over the next five years, lung cancer is likely to be the fastest-growing cancer market, with new treatments and new combinations of current treatments vying for share.
• Breast cancer, the largest market, is stable—early detection has led to early diagnosis and early-stage treatment, plus it is well served by Herceptin, Avastin, Tykerb and other drugs. Ditto for colorectal cancer.
• Renal cancer will remain a fast-growing niche market.
• Leukemias and ovarian cancers will see a big jump in sales as new treatments arrive.

Source: PharmExec Direct, June 4, 2008, by Walter Armstrong, senior editor.